Third man lucky - There's an interesting bit from David Sachs on this week's All-in Podcast where they are discussing the ups and downs in the commercial real estate property market. At one point they look at WeWork's likely bankrupcy and that even though it looks rather bad for them now, because they invested so heavily in sprucing up the properties they are renting around the world, should a private equity company take them over, they might very well do quite well after they renegotiate all their rental agreements.
In the discussions he mentions there's an old saying that it's the 3rd developer that ends up making all the money. The initial developer almost always goes bust, and often the second one too. It's the 3rd guy that swans in and makes all the money. Apparently it's a thing.
It occurred to me that this type of dynamic likely happens inter generations in otger areas too. The first time someone tries a truely new area of tech, they might get quite far but they are cutting through the jungle and it's a slog. The next generation have the benefit of the OG person's path, so they make very quick progress. Things are a lot easier for them. I wonder if what happens is the second lot push the ball up the hill even further, probably coming to different conclusions than the OG person who was too weighed down to continue. They get in a big argument with the OG folk, which weighs them down, until they too fall down. Then lucky sod number 3 walks in the door, they get all the way to the end of the path, avoiding any arguments, plant the flag and win.
There's probably something to learn in all this. #